Tourism Holdings Limited Case Study 8

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winner69

17-09-2007, 09:37 AM

Old thread not come over?

At a current price of $2.25 the rejected offer made at $2.80 or whatever a few months ago was, in hindsight, something that should not have been rejected.

Do all those who think that $2.80 was not fair value, based a lot on the half year report and guidance given in it, still believe that to be the case?

If sp great buying at the moment then

However THL seem to have gone back to their old ways and not really giving the market any great confidence in their ability to really deliver.


scamper

17-09-2007, 11:02 AM

i suspect it was pretty good value, and i would have sold had i been in nz.
sadly i was off gallivanting for three months, and could neither remember the size of my holding or the details of selling online.
it could be 12-15 months before we see 280 again.
i'm rather cross with myself. woe!


Toddy

24-09-2007, 10:33 AM

SP may stay down for quite some time.

THL
24/09/2007
HALTRECQ

REL: 1042 HRS Tourism Holdings Limited

HALTRECQ: THL: THL Halt of Securities

NZX Regulation Announcement
Tourism Holdings Limited (THL)
Halt of Securities

NZX Regulation advises that Tourism Holdings Limited (THL) has applied for,
and NZX Regulation ("NZXR") has granted, a trading halt in THL securities.
The trading halt is to enable MFS Living and Leisure to conduct a book build
on the sale of its existing stake in THL. NZXR anticipates that THL will be
in halt for the remainder of today, 24 September 2007.


scamper

24-09-2007, 10:44 AM

it's so long since i had to take notice of this sort of trading halt that i cant remember the implications! i presume that a trading halt and then the behind-the-scenes bargaining has fewer negative effects on the sp than mfs dumping the lot on the open market.

is there a rule that governs whether a trading halt is necessary?

just remembered -- i was offered a bucket full of npx years ago when there was a 'distressed seller'. the market price dropped to around the behind-the-scenes price, maybe 172c, and then pulled away merrily for years.

it would be wishful thinking to imagine thl 'pulling away merrily for years'. cheers.


winner69

31-12-2007, 07:56 AM

Hardly inspiring stuff from the head honcho

" Profits could always be better. It's been an okay year."

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10484834


Shouldn't overlook the fact that THL outperformed the NZX (and even NZO) this year ..... up nearly 20% ....... one of the standouts for the year ...... but are many regretting not taking the $2.80 or whatever it was


winner69

23-01-2008, 08:24 PM

With a current price of 191 that 280 that MFS offered seems a long way off

MFS accused of 'over paying' for a lot of the succesful acquisitions made so on reflection the 280 offered for THL was on the high side as well

Oh well -- some held out and all have suffered since ..... but it would be an interesting life for THL under MFS control at the moment eh


winner69

14-06-2008, 10:32 AM

THL back to it's old habits in disappointing punters

Nearly 50% down from the offer last year .... and the way MFS or whatever it is called now has gone it might have been on the block again .... at bargain basement prices.

Most likely many saying that that 280 solds good now


THL back on the watchlist again .... might be another ride from sub $1 to $3 sometime


Billy Boy

14-06-2008, 12:57 PM

They had to get rid of the coach lines as the tour market is drying up,
fuel up, costs in general up, and no quality driver/courier's comming on.
The capitial outlay too profits just was'nt there for them in that bizz.
They may get out of rest of the coaching endevours as, again, Costs
/profits may not stack up.

I am supprised they ditched the Red Boats and their holding in Milford.

However lets see how they pan out. watchlist stuff me thinks
BB


macduffy

14-06-2008, 01:49 PM

It seems to me that for whatever reason, the tourism business is hard to make work at public company level. Perhaps it's too capital and labour intensive and the big operators don't have the flexibility to be able to adjust to the rapid cyclical changes.
Those with long memories will remember Trans Tours of the 60's/70's, a similar company to THL, at least on the transport side in that they operated fleets of buses and campervans. A good performer for quite some time that eventually fell on hard times. NZ listed hotel companies, Rainbows End and the Christchurch gondola company have all found the going difficult. Don't mention Air NZ!
It's not a sector that I feel comfortable with any more.

:(


Grimy

14-06-2008, 07:36 PM

Definitely a sector that has its ups and downs. However, a sector that I have either had at least one company in my portfolio, or looking at which one to ditch or acquire. Air NZ actually made me a tidy profit several years ago, and could have again a few times, but talk about a rollercoaster. THL has always been of interest, but I've never held. Probably not quite the right time yet, but maybe before too long......


ratkin

15-06-2008, 02:56 AM

Problem is that the campervan hirers are fat yanks , brits or europeans. They been hit by probable recession , poor exchange rates petrol price hikes etc
Combine this with other companies offering rent a wreck type deals and you end up with half the fleet sitting idle but losing value.

No doubt they will have a good year when the worlsd cup comes around but that still a long way off


winner69

16-06-2008, 07:40 AM

Thanks ratkin and patsy ... for reminding me about the yard full of campervans not generating any income, why a high or is it a high dollar seems to stop tourists coming to the country, how high fuel prices stop people flying to this country, how the Olympics always seem to affect THL and and .... and .... and ....


And thanks for reminding me that their business is capital intensive and it requires high usage rates to make decent money ... and that it is pretty labout intensive and only makes a margin on top of this

And thanks for reminding me that THL is a perrenial non-performer and invariably disappoints the market and it appears as if nothing has changed

And thanks for reminding me that it is stupid of me to put THL back on the old watchlist because one day it might come right


Steve

18-06-2008, 08:23 PM

Winner - the usage rate is a concept that THL has never understood and has been one of the reasons for its own demise: contrary to common sense, a high campervan usage rate is less profitable than an optimal (lower) usage rate. A high usage rate means disproportionally higher maintenance costs and more frequent replacement.

THL has consistently insisted on full utilisation simply because they believe that the market focuses on sales levels, not profit levels. A utilisation rate of around 10% below the usual top summer rate, would act as leverage on bottom line. That is, slightly lower sales would help achieve significant cost reduction thus giving a higher bottom line.

... but who can explain this to those who come from NZ Lotteries and believe that this business should be managed the same, as an intangible product one, in which sales and costs follow a perfectly correlated and linear relationship?

"Come back, Pickup - all is forgiven"

I think that Patsy is hitting a nail on the head. Industry inexperience obviously counts for little, unless you are lucky enough to be receiving the paycheck...


patsy

11-11-2008, 02:40 PM

Today, the sp is at 87c.... a level not seen since November 1998. For shareholders, ten years of no capital growth, just some divvies.

What a shame.


winner69

12-11-2008, 04:28 PM

Biggest disappointment ever this comapny eh Patsy

I always have a laugh when they say they are 'well positioned' for when things improve ...... things may improve .... but generally not for long suffering THL shareholders

What price did dhareholders reject last year? Bugger they say now


J R Ewing

12-11-2008, 08:19 PM

From the CEO's address THL sys it has a market dominant position and a well defined strategy. The address also says:

"Although the yields are currently challenging, Explore More and our rebranded Backpacker product has gained market dominance and has curtailed the growth and product mix of competitors. More importantly, we have extended the useful rental life of our smaller vehicles in preference to selling them to low cost start-ups.
Over the next 12 months we will continue to grow our discount product offerings particularly, as we are seeing signs of consumers chasing value in the tighter economic environment."

To me, that implies that the biggest threat to yield in the Maui and Britz brands are the expanding Explore More and Backpacker brands.


parker1other

05-01-2009, 08:05 PM

please do tell, would you buy back in to THL in this recession?


JBmurc

09-01-2009, 09:29 AM

certainly wouldn't be the worse stock to hold if the divies keep coming at 11c = 15% yield
both NZ & AUS are great countries to travel by campers THL have core holdings in both
whats others views at 60c-70c little downside in CAP with KEY taking on tourism role??

On the watchlist for the mo


JBmurc

09-01-2009, 10:55 AM

LOL ... Zero chance of that!

Of a 11c ann divie? or the worse stock to hold ?


J R Ewing

09-01-2009, 12:12 PM

Any dividend payment at all would be a good result in the current environment. Times are getting tough in the tourism industry.


Dr_Who

17-02-2009, 02:46 PM

Anyone know THL's debt level?

Saves me time going throu the annual report.

Cheers


winner69

18-02-2009, 09:13 AM

Any dividend payment at all would be a good result in the current environment. Times are getting tough in the tourism industry.

So no dividend is a bad result?

THL plunge into loss territory and things look tough going forward


J R Ewing

18-02-2009, 11:30 AM

So no dividend is a bad result?

THL plunge into loss territory and things look tough going forward

This result is not unexpected in the current environment. It is likely that some competitors are finding things equally tough. Their comments about a trend towards last minute bookings and an oversupply in the industry is correct. Right now, at the absolute peak tourist season, there are plenty of vehicles available. The strategy of arriving in Auckland and shopping for the best deal can pay off this year (although it is still risky). A few years ago anyone trying this spent the first few days of the holiday searching for ANY vehicle. After walking the streets and phoning around they would take whatever was offered at more or less any price!

I do find it a bit rich that THL blames the rest of the market for this oversupply. They have recently launched and expanded Explore More, which is a market leader in terms of unsustainably low prices. This brand actually guarantees to have the lowest prices. THL rationalizes this as being a "defensive" position, but I do think it will be difficult to transform this brand (and Backpacker) into higher yield operations later on.


J R Ewing

18-02-2009, 03:19 PM

Interestingly, a couple of days ago, Daniel Alpe (son of Chris Alpe, founder of THL's Maui and who now operates Ezy Rentals after leaving THL), said that campervan rental volumes were holding pretty well so I don't buy THL's argument that there is an oversupply in the market.



Yes, some operators are maintaining or increasing volumes - although this in itself doesn't necessarily equate to maintaining bottom line performance. Prices are just as important as utilisation. I wasn't suggesting that THL had out-performed the rest of the industry or that their current situation was an inevitable result of the market conditions. My original point some weeks ago was that given THL's relatively low profitability when compared with turnover in the boom periods, the prospects of a dividend once the downturn arrived was very low. If they had been able to declare even a modest interim dividend, in my opinion that would have been an excellent result. They have made an improvement to the balance sheet and should be commended for that.

I doubt that there are any rental operators, Ezy (now Jucy) included, that are enjoying the current market conditions. There IS an oversupply of both cars and campervans - and as a consequence "normal" summer rates have only been achieved over the Xmas and February peaks. Rates have been offered over this summer that would previously only have been available in the off-season, and THL (and others including Jucy) have lead the way in this regard. Note that Jucy ALSO guarantees to have the cheapest prices. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out where this is heading!


winner69

26-04-2009, 07:18 PM

SARS and bird flu stuffed the THL shareprice so what will swine flu do it?


J R Ewing

29-04-2009, 08:04 AM

By Jenny Ruth

Tuesday 28th April 2009


Campervan rental operator Tourism Holdings' extensive restructuring over
recent years means it is now focused on the free and independent traveler
(FIT) market, says McDouall Stuart.

"This segment is likely to offer the highest growth in the future and should
boost opportunities in motor home rentals in both Australia and New
Zealand," it says. Increasing competition between airlines and higher
tourism promotion spending in New Zealand and Australia are likely to
enhance the company's prospects.

It is also likely to be assisted by the recent weakness in both the New
Zealand and Australian dollars, if sustained, it says.

Nevertheless, margins can be volatile as high fixed costs and high capital
expenditure makes it susceptible to demand fluctuations. And the company
didn't pay an interim dividend as directors focused on debt reduction in the
uncertain global economic environment.

"Tourism flow will continue to be adversely impacted by the global economic
conditions."

It is forecasting no profit this year, compared with $14.3 million last
year, and just $1.4 million in 2010, rising to $4.6 million in 2011. While
it values the shares at 77 cents compared with the 45 cent share market
price in late April, its recommendation is "hold" until the global economy
improves.



BROKER CALL: McDouall Stuart rate Tourism Holdings (THL) as HOLD


They must be valuing on the basis of assets I suppose. $75 million works out as quite a large multiple of profit no matter which of the three years you use! I trust that forecast for 2011 is conservative - isn't that Rugby World Cup year?


J R Ewing

01-05-2009, 10:41 AM

Article from stuff.co.nz



Workers at Hamilton-based Caravans International Munro may find out next week if a further 67 jobs are to go, two months after the company's last round of redundancies.

CI Munro, which builds and rents out motorhomes and caravans, is a division of Tourism Holdings Ltd, and reported a loss of $3.2 million in the six months to December 31.

The company told workers on Tuesday of its planned 67 redundancies, and expected to finish consulting with staff and the union by next Tuesday.

Tourism Holdings chief financial officer Ian Lewington told NZPA there had been no intention to make further cuts after 20 positions were culled in February.

The company had managed to retain about 12 others at that time by moving them to the growing fabrication business.

"Since then the outlook for tourism has deteriorated and the uncertainty in the world economy has meant the outlook for the build requirements in terms of caravans and motorhomes is lower than expected," Mr Lewington said.

If the full 67 go, the company will have almost halved in size from the beginning of the year when it employed more than 170 staff.

The company was not hopeful an alternative to job cuts would be found, but would consider any changes that made sense.

The Engineering, Printing and Manufacturing Union (EPMU) had entered consultation with the company to seek alternatives, such as introducing a nine-day fortnight.

"The company had indicated to me that they had looked at the nine-day fortnight but they don't believe it's workable," union organiser Peter Cooper-Davies said.

"I would say that the EPMU spent three weeks talking with Fisher & Paykel on the proposed deal that they did under the nine-day fortnight."

Fisher & Paykel Appliances said last month that signing up to the Government's nine-day fortnight until September would prevent about 60 redundancies in its Auckland refrigeration assembly workforce.

The company has since announced nearly 30 further job losses, although they were in different divisions of the business.

Mr Cooper-Davies had asked for an extension to the one-week consultation period, which was the minimum required under the collective agreement.

"Whilst the company has met their requirements in regards to consultation for redundancies, as per the collective, I believe due to the actual impact it's going to have -- you're talking probably three-quarters of the production line staff going -- that it would have been nice to have been told earlier," he said.

End


That will result in an overall aging of the fleet, and possibly increased emphasis on the Backpacker and ExploreMore brands. Perhaps THL sees the FIT market segment as being less quality conscious? The danger in this approach is that it could take a significant capital injection in a few years time to bring the fleet back to a relatively young age in order to offer the premium product.


gravy train

30-06-2009, 06:09 PM

There were two significant end of day trades today of 1.5M shares at 40c and 1.9M at 40.5c taking the SP lower. From my observation this the largest volume in nearly 2 years and the 3rd highest over 10 years. A larger investor getting out? Any views as to who is selling and why?.

DISC: watcher, not owner


winner69

30-06-2009, 06:42 PM

Well spotted gt .... yes a big volume day.

Could be AXA as they have been selling down for a while and as June 30 conveniently was an end of a quarter thought may have thought it better not having to own up to to having too many ... conjecture only. Schroeders had a SSH notice the other day as well.

Story in yesterdays paper saying no wage increase for the workers and saying something like 'at best no indication of next year being better than this year' .... round about way of saying next yaer stuffed i think

However somebody must have bought these shares eh ... must think them a bargain - goen from sub $1 to good prices in the past bur THL is a perennial underperformer.

I bet punters wishing they took $2.80 on offer a year or so ago .... but then the share was so underpriced on potential it was going to $5 .... yeah right


winner69

30-06-2009, 06:48 PM

But then the outfit who wanted to buy them went bust anyway


fwu005

30-06-2009, 07:43 PM

But then the outfit who wanted to buy them went bust anyway

SUBSTANTIAL SHAREHOLDERS AT LAST NOTICE

Tower Corporation 13/08/2004 5,038,222 5.10%
Oliham Trust 13/08/2004 4,500,000 4.60%
K D Cushing Family Trust 13/08/2004 7,846,484 8.00%
Drake Associates LP, Sterling Grace Capital Management LP, Sterling Grace International LLC 16/03/2007 16,652,133 17.00%
AXA Asia Pacific Holdings Ltd 21/03/2007 12,184,761 12.41%
Cushing, David 10/03/2005 9,346,484 9.52%
Forsyth Barr Limited 10/03/2005 13,327,085 13.57%


biker

30-06-2009, 08:10 PM

SUBSTANTIAL SHAREHOLDERS AT LAST NOTICE

Tower Corporation 13/08/2004 5,038,222 5.10%
Oliham Trust 13/08/2004 4,500,000 4.60%
K D Cushing Family Trust 13/08/2004 7,846,484 8.00%
Drake Associates LP, Sterling Grace Capital Management LP, Sterling Grace International LLC 16/03/2007 16,652,133 17.00%
AXA Asia Pacific Holdings Ltd 21/03/2007 12,184,761 12.41%
Cushing, David 10/03/2005 9,346,484 9.52%
Forsyth Barr Limited 10/03/2005 13,327,085 13.57%

Why would these professional investors still be holding this 'how not to' of a business model?
And on the other hand, unless you think the outfit is going out of business, why sell now?
I know this stock has dissapointed brokers and punters alike, over the years. A decade ago I actually took a good profit out of this outfit. Hindsight tells me it was sheer luck.


Phaedrus

30-06-2009, 09:00 PM

You can make TA as complicated as you like but it is hard to see the need for complexity in cases like this. THL was in an uptrend for years. The uptrend ended and now THL has been in a downtrend for years. The On Balance Volume indicator provided excellent early warning of the reversal and has not given even a hint of a "Buy" signal since. What more could you ask?

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/THL630.gif


fwu005

30-06-2009, 10:45 PM

You can make TA as complicated as you like but it is hard to see the need for complexity in cases like this. THL was in an uptrend for years. The uptrend ended and now THL has been in a downtrend for years. The On Balance Volume indicator provided excellent early warning of the reversal and has not given even a hint of a "Buy" signal since. What more could you ask?

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/THL630.gif

Hi
How to get those charts ? which compay can provide such function ?


Phaedrus

04-07-2009, 11:00 AM

Hi Fwu005, I use MetaStock software to create my charts, but there are plenty of other equally good programs such as SuperCharts, Insight Trader, Ezy Chart Pro etc.

There are now such good charting facilities available free on the net, that it
is no longer necessary to buy your own software in order to use TA effectively. Incrediblecharts would be one of the better on-line alternatives.


elZorro

05-07-2009, 02:27 PM

I refer to part of the article already posted about CI Munro in May 2009:

Quote:
Workers at Hamilton-based Caravans International Munro may find out next week if a further 67 jobs are to go, two months after the company's last round of redundancies.

CI Munro, which builds and rents out motorhomes and caravans, is a division of Tourism Holdings Ltd, and reported a loss of $3.2 million in the six months to December 31.

The company told workers on Tuesday of its planned 67 redundancies, and expected to finish consulting with staff and the union by next Tuesday.

Tourism Holdings chief financial officer Ian Lewington told NZPA there had been no intention to make further cuts after 20 positions were culled in February.

The company had managed to retain about 12 others at that time by moving them to the growing fabrication business.

"Since then the outlook for tourism has deteriorated and the uncertainty in the world economy has meant the outlook for the build requirements in terms of caravans and motorhomes is lower than expected," Mr Lewington said.

If the full 67 go, the company will have almost halved in size from the beginning of the year when it employed more than 170 staff "

Part of the sad story of this proud regional business upping sticks and moving to Hamilton, is that it may have dropped some of its support base of skilled workers, and also happened to move at just the wrong time. Senior management should be looking hard at themselves over this mistake.

-elZorro-


Spooko

05-07-2009, 08:20 PM

There are now such good charting facilities available free on the net, that it is no longer necessary to buy your own software in order to use TA effectively. Incrediblecharts would be one of the better on-line alternatives.

Phaedrus - am new to TA and this forum. Incrediblecharts does not appear to support nz stocks...do you have any other recommendations for free charting the NZX?

With thanks.


Phaedrus

05-07-2009, 08:31 PM

IncredibleCharts is able to import NZ data from free sources such as Yahoo. There have been quite a few posts here explaining how to do this, most of them in the thread entitled "Incredible sharts NZ shares?"
You probably did a search for charts and therefore missed this one!!!!


forest

05-07-2009, 08:51 PM

I have just edit my alternative spelling of "shart" to the more convential "chart" to help find the post easier :)

Forest


whirly

05-07-2009, 10:46 PM

i prefer inconvential sharting methods. Best not to follow the flock...:rolleyes:


chippy52

06-07-2009, 06:57 AM

([QUOTE=Spooko;263478]Phaedrus - am new to TA and this forum. Incrediblecharts does not appear to support nz stocks...do you have any other recommendations for free charting the NZX?

This is from the Incredible chart thread. The other thing to note is data is a couple of days old.

You can do it Forrest but I dont think you can load the whole exchange at one time

Here is the path
Open Incedible Charts
At top left of screen
click on Securities
scroll down to
LOAD SYMBOL FROM YAHOO
enter code and load exchange in lower part of window


forest

06-07-2009, 01:37 PM

Thats right chippy, it takes a bit of time loading up the NZ shares, but its very doable, because the NZ exchanges is small and there are plenty of NZ companies you probably want to leave out for one or another reason.

The other limitation is that stock screen doesn't seem to work on the NZ shares.


Spooko

06-07-2009, 05:26 PM

Thanks folks. Certainly enough to get started - look forward to contributing to the forum once up and going.


minimoke

28-07-2009, 11:52 AM

Some news about to come out of THl soon? up 10.9% at the moment


sharer

28-07-2009, 01:01 PM

Buyers want over 6X what Sellers have on the table today ...


COLIN

28-07-2009, 02:50 PM

Some news about to come out of THl soon? up 10.9% at the moment

The new cycleways - they're going to bring hordes of Chinese to these shores - they might even bring their own bikes!
I see that AIR is up too. Personally I stay well clear of anything to do with the tourist industry - too fickle.


Dr_Who

28-07-2009, 02:54 PM

The new cycleways - they're going to bring hordes of Chinese to these shores - they might even bring their own bikes!
I see that AIR is up too. Personally I stay well clear of anything to do with the tourist industry - too fickle.

ROFL... Chinese people dont cycle for fun and especially not up hilly slops. Only the peasants in China cycles. The new cycleway is a total waste of money. It will be built and everyone will try it for the first few months. After that people will forget it even existed, abit like the cycleways dotted around Auckland.


Some news about to come out of THl soon? up 10.9% at the moment

Maybe they bought a bike shop


blackcap

29-07-2009, 05:18 PM

Dr Who

Dont discount the Europeans, they love cycling. I know in Holland many ppl do cycle tours around the country with their tents and equipemt on the back of their cycles and go around for a week looking at the scenerey.

It could be a winner.


Arbitrage

29-07-2009, 06:21 PM

It is the high value tourists, such as the Europeans, that these cycleways attract. If you do the rail trail in Otago, food and accommodation are not cheap. But it is a fantastic experience you won't get anywhere else in the world.


O Dusty

03-08-2009, 06:28 PM

Strong resistence at 50 cents has been broken and will now turn to support and should push through 52 level, charts looks good with Indicators such as RSI, MACD but my resources are not great as I am having to make do with Direct broking chart as I am travelling so cannot download charting software at many internet cafes.
Lead up to August 26 results will be an interesting time for THL, will the div return?


minimoke

04-08-2009, 09:01 AM

Strong resistence at 50 cents has been broken and will now turn to support and should push through 52 level,
.60 may be the new resistance level.


Grimy

04-08-2009, 05:50 PM

Still a gazillion un-rented camper vans parked up around Auckland airport area (of all companies).
I wouldn't be jumping in yet.


O Dusty

05-08-2009, 05:50 PM

THL up again, straight through 60 resistence level when NZX down. Bought into THL with a longer term view in mind targeting 2011 increased tourism numbers especially in my opinion the Chinese along with the Rugby world cup, very few fans are going to Cross the world and not tack a holiday onto their world cup plans, chart showing strength but now I think there could be several chances to trade this company profitably between now and then.
Share rise has been supported by decent volume however majority are small parcels going through, 1000/2000/3500?


Not sure what the driver is for the recent rise off its lows around 45c but I was lucky enough to get in at 47c with the longterm trendline break.

Obviously the NZX have their suspicions as well as they have queried THL as to the sudden price rise which has been on fairly solid volume.

I have watched this shareprice fall for quite some time now always intending to enter on the break in the long term trendline. I often wonder why people buy a share in a downtrend when it is the easiest thing in the world to wait for the reversal to occur before jumping in.

Your money can be working somewhere else in the meantime!


O Dusty

06-08-2009, 12:52 AM

Not sure what the driver is for the recent rise off its lows around 45c but I was lucky enough to get in at 47c with the longterm trendline break.

Obviously the NZX have their suspicions as well as they have queried THL as to the sudden price rise which has been on fairly solid volume.

I have watched this shareprice fall for quite some time now always intending to enter on the break in the long term trendline. I often wonder why people buy a share in a downtrend when it is the easiest thing in the world to wait for the reversal to occur before jumping in.

Your money can be working somewhere else in the meantime!

Similar method as me, I got in at 49c. I have been scouring the internet looking for the driver as well. I thought MOT may have changed it forecasts for tourists to NZ, they have but it has been downgraded to 2.5% for 2010from 4%. This along with several comments that even this may be hard to achieve, a spike of 6.5% during 2011 however. Only news from THL is that they have are still complying with disclosures rules. Anyone else got an idea?
Only other thing is Aussie visitors are up and their market is performing so well, THL low was 41c in early July. This can't just be speculation because Volume was has been over 500,00 and 400,000 on some of the respected days which is much greater than the usual trading range.


O Dusty

06-08-2009, 01:13 AM

Similar method as me, I got in at 49c. I have been scouring the internet looking for the driver as well. I thought MOT may have changed it forecasts for tourists to NZ, they have but it has been downgraded to 2.5% for 2010from 4%. This along with several comments that even this may be hard to achieve, a spike of 6.5% during 2011 however. Only news from THL is that they have are still complying with disclosures rules. Anyone else got an idea?
Only other thing is Aussie visitors are up and their market is performing so well, THL low was 41c in early July. This can't just be speculation because Volume was has been over 500,00 and 400,000 on some of the respected days which is much greater than the usual trading range.

ABN halved its valuation of THL to 51c and Forsyth Barr are at $1.13 with both maintaining a hold. Several brokers have downgraded their forecast for results on the 26th from a prefit to a loss. Most probably no dividend this year so surely in spite of the negative forecasts Volume and SP arn't being driven by the Great Kiwi Invite campaign


J R Ewing

07-08-2009, 11:44 AM

The winter ski season in the South Island has been a good one this year, and tourism is getting reasonable growth from the Australian market. That might combine to produce a good result from the off-season. As far as full year prospects go, the main summer season is far more critical. There may still be a downturn in the high value tourists from Europe and North America. I would look for a comment as to how forward bookings are in comparison with last year before deciding if this "green shoot" is real. Either that or trust the charts I suppose.

I'm not a holder, just an interested spectator.


winner69

26-08-2009, 12:27 PM

Nothing to exciting in the announcement today and pretty non-committal about the future

Had to smile when discontinued operations made a proft while ongoing operations made a loss

See shareprice is down from the 64 cents when NZX questioned why .... down to 54 cents now

Spose thats where it'll hang around for a while


J R Ewing

26-08-2009, 12:51 PM

One of the achievements mentioned is increased market share of hire days. This is of course contributing to the poor yield. Expansion needs to be justified by increased profits, as you can't pay out market share and enhanced brands as a dividend to the shareholders.


J R Ewing

08-09-2009, 09:29 AM

I found this on ShareChat:

"Daily ShareChat: Tourism Holdings
By Jenny Ruth

Monday 7th September 2009

Tourism Holding's result was ugly, again impacted by restructuring, discontinued activities, divestments, continuing losses at campervan builder CI Munro, reclassifications and accounting treatment changes, says First NZ Capital analyst Jason Familton.

But once all that was stripped out, "underlying earnings were slightly stronger than anticipated." That was a net loss of $1.4 million compared with Familton's $3.1 million estimate.

The current financial year looks like it will be difficult for the company with softening visitor arrivals and an over-supplied New Zealand domestic market negatively impacting earnings, he says.

"While some internal positives are expected from a turn-around at CI Munro (as the cost-base is reduced) and also Explore More moving out of the start-up phase, we do not anticipate any significant earnings growth until (financial) 2011."

Familton is forecasting a $0.5 million net profit for the current year and $7.5 million in the year ending June 2011.

"Given the current uncertainty around earnings, and in particular earnings momentum over the next 12 months, we struggle to find a near-term positive catalyst for the share price to recover from its current subdued level," he says.

But in 12 months time visitor numbers should have started to rebound and the market will be looking forward to 2011 and the boost from the Rugby World Cup. Familton values the shares at $1.01.


BROKER CALL: First NZ Capital rate Tourism Holdings (NZX: THL ) as outperform.



Daily ShareChat articles report how the main experts in the market might view a certain share and we provide this commentary as a useful resource for investors. Content on this site does not in any way constitute a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any particular share. Investors should always seek professional advice before making any investment decisions."

I'm a little surprised that he predicts just a $0.5 mil net profit for the next year and then values the company at $100 mil. They do seem to be expecting better things in 2011, but however good RWC is for THL it is still a one-off influence.


I held THL a number of years ago when its SP was well over $2 and made wee bit on them too. A company with such promise and one that I enjoyed seeing in action every time I passed a Maui van or a tour bus with THL written in small type under the drivers window. They virtually had a monopoly on camper vans with Maui and Britz and big events like the Sidney Olympics and the America's Cup were forecast to bring people in their droves to Australia and NZ to spend up large on THL's vans, tours and attractions.

What a blimmin disappointment. 'Big eventitis' resulted in visitors staying exclusively in Sydney and Auckland. The Germans stopped coming (for a while at least), the Japs stopped coming, while others came and went in a totally unpredictable ebb and flow as NZ's tourism industry was and remains at the mercy of outside events. In the meantime ther eare are plethora of competitive options for independent travelers that are not part of the THL stable.

IMHO THL's shareprice will track sideways ad infinitum. Investing in tourism related companies is a way too lumpy and unpredictable ride for this investor. However, some of you day traders probably make money out THL as false hopes,flash adverts and questionable stats get people excited about THL from time to time.


J R Ewing

09-09-2009, 09:43 AM

Accumulating .... ;)

And so is the CEO...


Snoopy

20-10-2009, 10:04 AM

As far as full year prospects go, the main summer season is far more critical.


Over the last week I have relocated a THL campervan from Christchurch to Auckland so have gained some first hand consumer knowledge of this business I thought shareholders might be interested in.

A relocation means THL reduce the daily hire charge to $5, although you as the hirer still have to pay for diesel road user tax and the diesel itself. Furthermore you have to pay for your own Picton to Welington ferry ticket, although THL pays for the van. It also means you don't have a choice over what campervan you take. I 'got lucky' and was allocated a 'top of the line' Maui brand camper, a Mercedes Sprinter. Having never hired a campervan before, I was amazed at how much road space one can take up with a vehicle that could only take two people. The darn thing was 7.1m long and 3m high, just short of requiring at HT licence to drive I would guess. I'll get the good bit over first.

What looked like an intimidating prospect was actually quite easy to drive. If I hadn't been looking down at all those other tiny little vehicles on the road -actually full size four wheel drives- I wouldn't have believed I was in such a road hog. The bed was very comfortable too, although I did sleep with the mattress 'doubled up' which probably helped. Fuel cost was just under $140 (I used around 130litres), plus $50 diesel tax. Over 1100km that is 8.5km/l or around 24mpg in the old money, probably reasonable for a vehicle of that size driven rapidly.

Unfortunately I had to drive rapidly due to what I considered a rather incompetant check out procedure. I was booked on the 2pm Picton ferry with a 1pm reporting time. I knew I would have to get away early. So I turned up at THL Christchurch Airport Base waiting for the 8am opening time. First customer in, I was duly shown in and offered a cup of coffee while I waited. Then I had to watch an explanatory DVD for the van, which took about half an hour. Following this, there was another 15 minutes or so sorting out paperwork before I was away. That gave me four and a quarter hours to drive to Picton in something the size of a bus in bad weather! The staff didn't seem at all concerned at this driving challenge they had set me. I was just lucky I had chosen Bluebridge and not the Interislander or my timetable would have been even tighter! When I gave the van back at the other end I found out that the two other people who were handing back campervans at the same time had each taken an hour to pick up their vans. So it would seem my 45 minute getaway time was 'lucky'.

Somehow I did manage to drive up to Picton in 4.25 hours, by going non stop and virtually flat out. I think it was my fastest trip up ever in any motor vehicle. Only one person passed me on the way and they got hauled over by the law. However, when I arrived there was more drama. THL had booked me a ticket, but there was nothing for the van! Desperate phone calls to Christchurch followed and eventually I got on the boat moments before it sailed. The fact that the Bluebridge staff seemed unflapped by the paperwork stuff up made me believe that what had happened to me may not have been an isolated incident!

The weather on the first three days was atrocious, so it didn't matter that the windscreen washers were not working. Something that caused me slightly more distress was on the second day when the ESP warning light came on and the indicators stopped working. That introduced an extra driving challenge, to try and arrive at my destination by only driving straight ahead! OK I admit I had to make a couple of turns in quiet back streets. The next day all of the electrics seem to function again.

I tried to report the electrical defects when I dropped off the campervan. But while someone with a clipboard noted any issues with the van returned in front of me, no one wrote down my complaints. I hope the girl who checked off my van had a good memory and did it later, as sending out a van with faults is a sure way of turning a happy camper into a hapless camper. I am not sure of the competance of the mechanics either. A chap in front of me wanted the clock on his campervan adjusted (it was four hours out) and the mechanic couldn't do it! Just in case you were wondering, none of the campers had owners manuals with them.

My overall impression of THL was of not enough staff, poorly trained. I knew there were different grades of campervans you could hire but I was very surprised to find there were four: Maui, Britz, Backpacker and Explore. Isn't that market segmenting gone mad? What are THL thinking? I have never held shares in THL and I can't say that my experience has me hanging out to invest. If you ask me whether I would hire a van from them at normal price ( I was quoted $155 per day ), then I probably wouldn't. But would I relocate a van for them again? Probably yes, but I would allow more time between connections. knowing how THL operate!

SNOOPY

discl: do not hold THL


Snoopy

20-10-2009, 10:51 AM

Over the last week I have relocated a THL campervan from Christchurch to Auckland so have gained some first hand consumer knowledge of this business I thought shareholders might be interested in.


Oh and one more thing. Normally when you hire a vehicle you have to put up a bond for the amount not covered by vehicle insurance. That is fair enough. Normally you write out a credit card voucher which is then 'ripped up' if you bring your vehicle back safely.

However, having just got my credit card account today I see that I have been charged for my bond as a transaction. I was assured when I returned the van that this charge will be reversed. But it will be interesting to see how long THL take to refund my money. I wouldn't normally mention what is quite a minor thing. But if THL have taken $800 off me as a loan (which is in effect what they have done), spread over a fleet of camper vans that amounts to a lot of cash on the books that is not really theirs. While I was shown how to cook on my campervan stove, was the company at the same time cooking their own cash books?

Also I was surprised to see a 2% surcharge on my credit card payments. I know the banks have got a good little racket going here clipping the ticket whereever credit cards are flashed. But generally companies do not push this charge through to the consumer. I always thought the trade off for businesses over credit card bank charges was that the bank guarantees that the merchant will in fact get paid, saving the merchant having to chase unpaid accounts. Perhaps some businesses have forgotten that?

SNOOPY


sharer

20-10-2009, 12:57 PM

Thanks for that report Snoopy. This is so different from the company we originally invested in. I was hanging on reluctantly hoping for better prices as the rugby fanatics invade the country in a year or more, which i suppose will still happen. But with no dividend income to justify a place, it seemed the stars had lined up for a prompt booting out.
However, today it looks like there is no market interested in my shares.:(


Snoopy

20-10-2009, 05:03 PM

Thanks for that report Snoopy. This is so different from the company we originally invested in. I was hanging on reluctantly hoping for better prices as the rugby fanatics invade the country in a year or more, which i suppose will still happen. But with no dividend income to justify a place, it seemed the stars had lined up for a prompt booting out.
However, today it looks like there is no market interested in my shares.


I'm not trying to say whether anyone should buy or sell THL Sharer. I was just calling things as I found them. Generally my investment strategy is to look for 'good' companies that have suffered some kind of setback. Then I buy in cheaply and wait for the recovery.

THL is a company I *want* to like. Tied as it is to overseas tourism, and knowing what a good place NZ is for tourists I have tended to think:

"What is good for THL is good for NZ."

Mind you the US version that that saying:

"What is good for GM is good for the US."

didn't stop General Motors going bust! I have read this thread from the beginning detailing the sorry tale of this perrennial underachiever. But last week was my first 'direct experience' with THL. I was interested if others experiences mirrored mine, or whether my experiences were atypical. At this stage I am not tempted to bid for your shares myself, Sharer!

SNOOPY


J R Ewing

20-10-2009, 07:03 PM

Oh and one more thing. Normally when you hire a vehicle you have to put up a bond for the amount not covered by vehicle insurance. That is fair enough. Normally you write out a credit card voucher which is then 'ripped up' if you bring your vehicle back safely.

However, having just got my credit card account today I see that I have been charged for my bond as a transaction. I was assured when I returned the van that this charge will be reversed. But it will be interesting to see how long THL take to refund my money. I wouldn't normally mention what is quite a minor thing. But if THL have taken $800 off me as a loan (which is in effect what they have done), spread over a fleet of camper vans that amounts to a lot of cash on the books that is not really theirs. While I was shown how to cook on my campervan stove, was the company at the same time cooking their own cash books?

Also I was surprised to see a 2% surcharge on my credit card payments. I know the banks have got a good little racket going here clipping the ticket whereever credit cards are flashed. But generally companies do not push this charge through to the consumer. I always thought the trade off for businesses over credit card bank charges was that the bank guarantees that the merchant will in fact get paid, saving the merchant having to chase unpaid accounts. Perhaps some businesses have forgotten that?

SNOOPY

Things are changing in the rental industry with respect to bonds. A few years ago a signed blank voucher or some sort of pre-authorization was accepted by most companies. Nowadays there are a plethora of credit and debit cards issued with very low limits. So the company can easily be left holding a worthless bit of paper if the vehicle is damaged. Having said that, I am surprised that you were not told about the insurance excess being charged in advance and that you were not asked to sign to that effect. It could be embarrassing indeed to have considerably less available funds on your card than you thought! Still, at least you will be getting the refund in the same currency. An overseas tourist could easily be significantly out of pocket due to currency conversion charges and fluctuations.


CC Team

27-10-2009, 01:31 PM

Hi Snoopy, Marie at the Customer Care team here. Thanks for your feedback. We were aware of some of your pointers and are already working on them but have taken on board your other comments around relocations that we were not fully aware of. Thanks again for taking the time to comment. MT


Arthur

27-10-2009, 04:13 PM

Sounds like things have improved a bit Snoopy. When we hired (several years ago) we got a two minute talk, then sent on our way. One of the few things we were showed was the "exhaust break". Tried to use it just before a nasty corner and found out it was really the steering wheel height adjustment. As a shareholder I wrote a letter outlining our problems (there were many) and received a standard? letter back saying nothing of merit. Saved me a bit of money though as sold some shares after that experience. Would have saved a lot more if I had dumped when I found out about the genius move to Hamilton. Hot tip - dump these before the World Cup. Based on previous experience such an event could send them under.


flyingfox

24-11-2009, 11:23 AM

Look at today's volume! and what would happen next ?


sharer

24-11-2009, 03:53 PM

...
THL is a company I *want* to like. Tied as it is to overseas tourism, and knowing what a good place NZ is for tourists I have tended to think:
"What is good for THL is good for NZ."
Mind you the US version that that saying:
"What is good for GM is good for the US."
didn't stop General Motors going bust! I have read this thread from the beginning detailing the sorry tale of this perrennial underachiever. ...
SNOOPY

Originally i had the same supportive thoughts re THL Snoopy. Both my own a/c and several charitable trusts i used to direct have held a lot of shares from near the beginning (about the transition from The Helicopter Line towards Tourist Holdings Ltd). For a long time THL has been on my 'potential Sell' lists, as a "perennial underachiever" as you noted. If only they had stuck to their profitable knitting, when they found bouts of success; but the directors kept changing to try something else & most times lost lots of money (but never reduced their own fees of course). After reading some THL horror stories recently, & with no dividends to look forward to just now, i decided the only logical thing was to quit. Unloaded the last few thousand upon our more optimistic unsuspecting fellow investors last week, luckily still at a profit to our holding price of about 34c after so many years.
However, i think they should have been dumped years ago - the missed opportunities cost of stubbornly holding on to a "perennially underachieving" company are hard to calculate, but certainly are great.


troyvdh

24-11-2009, 05:53 PM

I agree sharer...I was into this crowd years ago....sold some at $5.70.....I began to sell when Sir Tim ..started to sell his 12 million....those were exciting days....yep those guys at the beginning seemed to know what worked....now...just camper wagons it seems....


flyingfox

25-11-2009, 01:11 PM

VERY ODD QUITE AFTER A BIG VOLUME..
MYSELF WORK AT SIMILAR BUSINESS WITH WAITOMO CAVE, IT IS REALLY GOOD TIME FOR THE WHOLE INDUSTRY NOW..
HOW COME THL HAVE NO REACTION:confused:


Doyle

17-12-2009, 10:05 AM

Source of todays price spike?


flyingfox

17-12-2009, 11:47 AM

Source of todays price spike?

source?maybe those US fellas,maybe the tourism sector is too good to be ignored any more..


flyingfox

17-12-2009, 11:59 AM

stochastic looks risky


bull....

17-12-2009, 12:28 PM

Looks like a good stock on the charts , the big move today is confirming the breakout in price above resistance at 72c.

I dont see any resistance till 1.32 if breakout holds.

Tourism stocks are all being re - rated now

All in all nothing out of the ordinary with price action its in a up - trend


bull....

22-12-2009, 06:13 PM

Auckland airport traffic figures out today make for positive reading on vistor arrivals.
Should continue the positive trend over coming months.

THL should pick up some of the extra visitors.


winner69

22-12-2009, 08:44 PM

Odd thing about THL over the last decade has been the perverse relationship between tourist numbers and the THL shareprice .... a negative correlation .... quite often more tourists lrads to a worsening shareprice


bull....

23-12-2009, 07:23 AM

Traffic figures showed an increasing amount of Australians coming , We would assume this to continue as the cross rate stays weak. And those Aussies love there campervans I hear lol


winner69

23-12-2009, 08:59 AM

Bull .... here's achart showing visitor numbers and the THL shareprice over the last few years

THL been an enigma eh ..... during the period in the early 00's when visitor numbers boomed the THL shareprice tanked .... The shareprice went up from 2002 to 2007 when visitor numbers were stillrising but I reckon it only went up because most shares went up in that time (and THL had some takeover action going on to push it in the latter part of that period) ..... and during 2008'2009 when visitor numbers have remained very resilience (only down 2%) the share price tanked again

Logic says visitor numbers should be one of the key drivers of THL shareprice .... but the chart suggests otherwise eh ... put it down to poor management or a stuffed business model I have no idea .... but over the last decade its been one long sad story hasn't it

Whether things have turned for the better is anybody's guess ... lets hope so ... the shareprice really can't go any lower


bull....

23-12-2009, 09:10 AM

Hi Winner you show a good chart comparison but your chart does show 2 annomalies in that early 2000 and recently we had major market down turns which all shares declined.

I think if you remove the annomalies ( discrepancy or deviation from an established rule or trend ) the chart would probably reflect a similar trend comparison.


winner69

23-12-2009, 09:28 AM

Long term then you would think that THL sales or profits should move with visitor numbers ..... a constant PE or the like would reflect a 'normalised' share price .... and then you are at the vagaries of market sentiment whether the price is higher or lower than the 'normalised figure'

I'll post a chart showing what I mean later .... it appears more visitors = less sales and profits if the past is anything to go by .... just as well the past is not a reliable indicator of the future eh


bull....

23-12-2009, 10:35 AM

Probably would reflect what you say winner if the company was solely just rentals.


flyingfox

23-12-2009, 11:03 AM

they have a really good cave, especially in summer visitor no. will be boost
But, their management is a problem, i've been there for 3 months


bull....

23-12-2009, 11:29 AM

The rentals should in theory track vistor numbers so any increase in vistor numbers should be reflected in more rental sales.
So the companies figures may be on the low side if the next few mths show good vistor numbers.
CI Munro would be the wildcard as far as profits go.
Bad management can quickly destroy a good operation and it looks like Waitomo caves will be a very profitable operation if managed and marketed well going forward.
I presume your referring to Waitomo Flying fox.


flyingfox

23-12-2009, 12:55 PM

yes bull..do they have any other caves?
i believe thl wil be good at least next few months, but for long term i'm not sure
you mean CI munro will be profitable?i dont think so


bull....

23-12-2009, 01:51 PM

CI Munro i meant maybe the problem with there profit if they cant sort it out.


bull....

23-12-2009, 04:15 PM

Here some RV companies in the US for anyone wants to see how they are performing or to just have a read.

Winnebago - WGO up about 400% from the Lows in March
Fleetwood
Monaco
Newmar


winner69

31-12-2009, 10:53 AM

DB has NTA @ 1.37 ... SP currently .80 !!!

Review of past trends following recessions says that THL bounces back pretty darn quick with just one very sucky year, followed by pickup to near half-to-normal sales followed the next year by a return to the status quo. This is the time to bail as THL never seem to grow all that much following the two years it takes to get back on track.

You saying THL is a SELL then Belg

At 80 cents against a book value of $1.85 the market is already saying that THL will continue it value destruction into the future ... whats changed, THL has never made enought to cover its cost of capital anyway

Interesting comments about their past sales performance .... the chart below shows what has happened over the years .... one thing noticable is that they don't seem to recover much after big drops .... ie almost a long slow miserable decline (or flat at best) .... and one really can't blame recent global events for current performance

So it all comes down to what margin they make on the sales they do make .... Munros stuffed last year and if they fix that you would expect to see $10=$15m NPAT a base going forward (still value destruction territory) which would give some hope of a shareprice around $1.30-$1.50 sometime.

Hey nearly talked myself into buying .... but on principle i don't like investing in -

- value destroyers (ie not covering cost of capital)
- companies that can't seem to grow the revenues line when they should
- companies that seem to lurch from one disaster to another
- companies who don't seem to have any pricing power

But then again I could forget that and go for a short to medium term trade based on TA

You not selling Belg .... wouldn't want you to push down the price quitting your holding


bull....

06-01-2010, 09:21 AM

Tourism Confidence Continues to Improve

Friday 11 December 2009 – For immediate release

The Tourism Industry Monitor shows that the confidence levels of tourism sector operators continue to improve.



Ministry of Tourism Research Manager, Bruce Bassett, said that overall, optimism in the industry was tracking in the right direction, although this wasn’t the case for all operators.



“Tourism is a very broad industry and we’re mindful that while business is good for many, others are still hurting. We’re not out of the woods yet, but the industry’s mood is heading in the right direction and there is optimism about the summer period.”



Just over half of businesses surveyed (52%) expect demand to improve over the next three months and under one third (29%) expect demand to fall, with the balance expecting their situation to remain the same.



Lack of demand continues to be the main factor limiting business performance, cited by three quarters (75%) of businesses surveyed. Competition and discounting also continue to limit performance, cited by 38% of businesses.



The Tourism Industry Monitor is an industry wide initiative. It is designed to provide the industry with monthly information on the performance of the tourism sector, including the short-term outlook. It is led by the Ministry of Tourism, the Tourism Industry Association, Tourism New Zealand and the New Zealand Hotel Council.



For a copy of the Tourism Industry Monitor visit www.tourismresearch.govt.nz/tim.


bull....

08-01-2010, 09:44 AM

Prices showing positive trending behaviour minor resistance at 97c more at 1.32 then 1.50.

The fall from 1.32 to 72 was pretty much freefall so in theory should not be to much overhead resistance till then.


Doyle

08-01-2010, 04:09 PM

I got on board with this one at 77 cents so am fairly happy with performance so far. Should be well placed to take advantage of the Rugby world Cup, I would have thought. But other than that seems little explanation for such a sharp price rise, tourism operators are being revalued, but I wouldn't have thought that would explain the near 40% increase over the last couple of months.


forest

08-01-2010, 07:23 PM

One positive which was brought up at the ann meeting was that within Action Motor Bodies a contract had been won to build dental health units for District Health Boards.
The expectations were that the contract was large enough to generate reasonable good profits. This is a multi year contract. Unfortunately I do not remember that any profit forecast was given for this contract so I am not able to quantify the value of this contract.


bull....

14-01-2010, 09:33 AM

Vistor arrivals for Dec are released 11 feb 2010 should be a good number.

Chart wise we have breached the lows froms 2002 and 2003 which is good for a continuing of the bullish trend towards our targets of 1.32 - 1.50.
Also of note the Leisure and Tourism Index is close to breaking out above 1400 which should encourage more buyers into these stocks.


Doyle

14-01-2010, 09:41 AM

Vistor arrivals for Dec are released 11 feb 2010 should be a good number.

Chart wise we have breached the lows froms 2002 and 2003 which is good for a continuing of the bullish trend towards our targets of 1.32 - 1.50.
Also of note the Leisure and Tourism Index is close to breaking out above 1400 which should encourage more buyers into these stocks.

Leisure and Tourism Index, didn't even know such a thing existed. Learn something new every day,


Doyle

14-01-2010, 09:53 AM

Almost as if a result of your post BULL, the rally seems to have started a second leg this morning, tentative at this stage but might challenge $1 before the week is out.


bull....

14-01-2010, 10:20 AM

As you mentioned Doyle the rugby world cup will help THL , infact I think it should be a cash bonaza.
I Know its a long way off but ya know the early bird catches the worm as they say.


Doyle

15-01-2010, 09:31 AM

And the $1 mark is hit, not sure if it will hold it for the close, but given the strength this week would be foolish to rule it out. Wonder if the NZX is contemplating another please explain letter?


bull....

15-01-2010, 10:08 AM

Looking to go to the New Zealand Rugby World Cup in 2011? You better book soon, as supply is becoming scarce, according the Rohan Marx, General Manager of iMall Motorhomes:




“You need to book a Motorhome for the 2011 Rugby World Cup now or you run the risk of missing out” warns Rohan Marx, General Manager of Motorhome Rentals at iMall Motorhomes. “As ridiculous as it sounds we already have one fleet of nearly 600 Motorhomes of all shapes and sizes completely booked out and several smaller fleets quickly nearing 100% Occupancy for the Rugby World Cup”.


The schedule for the 2011 Rugby World Cup in New Zealand is as follows:


•September 9th – October 2nd 2011 Pool Games
•October 8th – 23rd 2011 Quarter Finals and Finals

Pool games and Quarter finals are played in major centres in both the North and South island of New Zealand with the Semi finals and the final all being played in Auckland.




Marx continues:





“The even spread of locations hosting games and the scarcity of flights, hotels, and motels to, from and in many of these centres makes Motorhoming the perfect way to travel to and from games as well as see New Zealand along the way. Even though we have well over 4000 dedicated rental Motorhomes in New Zealand the Rugby World Cup will see a huge influx of overseas visitors from Rugby playing nations and many of these also happen to be strong Motorhoming Nationalities .




Larger 4 and 6 Berth vehicles will sell out first, so if you are travelling with 3 or more people you really do need to get in and book this side of Christmas 2009. The smaller 2 -3 berth vehicles or 2 Berths with Showers and toilets will sell out also but probably not until the middle or end of 2010. If you are thinking of booking a vehicle for the Rugby World Cup a couple or possibly even 6 months out from the Rugby World Cup – think again. The closest you’ll get is a car and a tent.



You don’t have to put 100% payment down on Campervans in New Zealand until much nearer the pick up date. So if you are worried about the New Zealand dollar being high at the moment and are waiting for it to possibly fall against the Euro or GBP this is not a valid strategy. The important thing is to book and secure a vehicle first. Most companies will require a deposit but the bulk of the rental won’t need to be paid until 3 – 6 months before the tournament. (start to middle of 2011) . Do not think that you will secure a cheap flight first before trying to secure a Motorhome or Campervan. It’s unlikely flights will fluctuate too much around the Rugby World Cup dates and even if they do this won’t be until very close to the actual dates of the tournament and all vehicles will be well and truly booked by then. This is a common mistake Motorhome renters are making with normal Summer periods so the Rugby World Cup will be even worse in terms of vehicle availability."


The asking rates on vehicles for the Rugby World Cup will also increase as the event approached and availability becomes scarce. Now is the best time book - check out Rugby World Cup


winner69

15-01-2010, 12:11 PM

And the $1 mark is hit, not sure if it will hold it for the close, but given the strength this week would be foolish to rule it out. Wonder if the NZX is contemplating another please explain letter?


Doyle - of course it will continue to rise ... just look at the pathetic volumes .... and seems plenty of keen buyers who prob want more than (readily) available

Probably go to 140 over the next month or 2 I reckon as some of those earlier charts showed a few pages back .... in particular the price:sales ratio one

Don't have much confidence in the company performance but heck if punters want to let the share price go highwe why not stay on for the ride.


winner69

15-01-2010, 12:14 PM

A while ago somebody who obviously knew about how THL work pointed out that the more use the campervans get the less money THL made .... something to do with how they account for deprwciation or something

Was counterintuitive but when explained made some sense

Maybe someone else can remember


J R Ewing

15-01-2010, 12:30 PM

As you mentioned Doyle the rugby world cup will help THL , infact I think it should be a cash bonaza.
I Know its a long way off but ya know the early bird catches the worm as they say.

I suspect this price rise has more to do with the current NZ tourism season than RWC. Tourism is pretty buoyant just now, especially when you compare it with everyone's gloomy predictions a few months ago. In rental cars, there seems to be less of an oversupply, and so yeilds have improved. If the same goes for campervans, THL should be having a good season.


bull....

15-01-2010, 12:48 PM

JR tourism is probably strong at the moment and im sure THL must be benefiting from this , as stated earlier i think they have under est the pick up since their last report at the annual meeting hence there projections are probably on the low side going forward.
Also stated aim to start repaying dividends later this year and the potentially huge returns from the RWC make THL very cheap now if you take a 2 year view , that is why i say the early bird is buying cheap now for what they will receive in way of capital gain + divs in 2011.
The only thing I worry about is mangemnt not living up to the potential and as others have stated this has been a concern over the years.
Maybe this new fellow at the helm will surprise us all ?


O Dusty

17-01-2010, 03:22 AM

THL up again, straight through 60 resistence level when NZX down. Bought into THL with a longer term view in mind targeting 2011 increased tourism numbers especially in my opinion the Chinese along with the Rugby world cup, very few fans are going to Cross the world and not tack a holiday onto their world cup plans, chart showing strength but now I think there could be several chances to trade this company profitably between now and then.
Share rise has been supported by decent volume however majority are small parcels going through, 1000/2000/3500?

First bought THL back around August for 49c based on many points you have raised bull...
Tourism numbers, RWC, capital gains and div reinstatement, NTA.
What drew me to THL in the first place was attempting to take a contrarion view and find stocks that have somewhat lagged the rally thus far and THL fit the bill perfectly. I picked THL in the NZ comp this year with 70c entry I think and tried to base my other predictions using this method as well.
Not thinking about taking any money of the table yet either with 2010 going to be a big year for them.


Phaedrus

17-01-2010, 08:39 AM

Focus on the cashflow ... ;)Nah - focus on the TREND!


Phaedrus

17-01-2010, 08:40 AM

As a long-term "buy and hold" THL has been a disaster. Overall it has gone nowhere in decades, but over this time there have been uptrends (and downtrends!) that lasted for years. "Active investors" using the simplest TA have made handsome profits on this stock. The crudest, bluntest instrument in the TA toolbox is a 200 day Moving Average. (Blue line on chart). Even this got you into the major uptrends, locking profits in before you gave too much back to the market, while keeping you out of major downtrends. As you would expect, more responsive indicators such as trendlines, oscillators, volume indicators etc give better results.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/THL117a.gif

Here is a 3 year chart detailing more recent activity. The recent trendline break gave an entry at 47 cents. Prices stayed at around this level for quite a while, giving multiple entry opportunities - an important factor for relatively lightly traded stocks such as this.

THL is currently in a good steady uptrend, with a confirmed trendline in place. Historically, breaks of such trendlines have given profitable and timely exit signals for this stock. An 85 day simple moving average is another source of buy/sell signals, though of course there are many other suitable indicators available.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/THL117b.gif


winner69

18-01-2010, 07:25 AM

Focus on the cashflow ... ;)

Obviously expecting cash flows to improve eh Belg

But in THL's case strong cash flows do not always translate into a strong shareprice .... therefore like Phaedrus feel it better to let the market do the talking

You never know if the cash flows over the next few years are strong snd the market gets excited we should see a shareprice of 250 or something

As you keep reminding us it is the ebbs and flows of market valuations ... esp from going from undervalued by the market to being overvalued by the market .... where the real money is to be made (what a lot of words to say buy cheap sell high eh)

THL was 'cheap' when its price:sales ratio got down to .25 ..... normally if doing OK a fair valuation is at least 1 .... so that was the time to get interested

Belg, but as a true contrarian shouldn't you be selling at the moment .... THL is in demand and the bugger is to get a decent chunk you have to pay over the odds on the day


winner69

18-01-2010, 09:31 AM

As a long-term "buy and hold" THL has been a disaster. .........

Here is a 3 year chart detailing more recent activity. The recent trendline break gave an entry at 47 cents. Prices stayed at around this level for quite a while, giving multiple entry opportunities - an important factor for relatively lightly traded stocks such as this.

THL is currently in a good steady uptrend, with a confirmed trendline in place. Historically, breaks of such trendlines have given profitable and timely exit signals for this stock. An 85 day simple moving average is another source of buy/sell signals, though of course there are many other suitable indicators available.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/THL117b.gif

Phaedrus ... great charts as usual

For this latest uptrend I am using a calculated ATR as the guide when to get out

Currently this at 3 times is 91 cents so a bit of leeway from todays price ... back to 91 cents and out she goes as we lock in profits (discipline eh). The ATR has been support for the total rise from 40 cents odd so it gives me some comfort

Let market sentiment rule ......... maybe 250 this time next year


J R Ewing

18-01-2010, 12:57 PM

JR tourism is probably strong at the moment and im sure THL must be benefiting from this , as stated earlier i think they have under est the pick up since their last report at the annual meeting hence there projections are probably on the low side going forward.
Also stated aim to start repaying dividends later this year and the potentially huge returns from the RWC make THL very cheap now if you take a 2 year view , that is why i say the early bird is buying cheap now for what they will receive in way of capital gain + divs in 2011.
The only thing I worry about is mangemnt not living up to the potential and as others have stated this has been a concern over the years.
Maybe this new fellow at the helm will surprise us all ?

I would look for some positive forecasts for this tourism season when they announce results to 31 December on 24th February. You could reasonably expect both yeilds and forward bookings to be tracking well ahead of forecast.

In all probability RWC year will be a vintage year for THL. But at the end of the cup final the shareholders will need to be able to look forward to economic returns from their assets over the core summer tourism seasons if the shareprice is going to justify $2.50 or so.


winner69

19-01-2010, 12:32 PM

Stuff all market activity with THL .... at these volumes obvious that not even Belg is selling


winner69

20-01-2010, 03:40 PM

Webster playing it safe ... from the NBR


Tourism Holdings chief executive Grant Webster said it was one of the key issues for the industry. “We need quite a bit of demand to come back before profitability comes back, but it will happen quite quickly once that demand returns.”

The company fell into a “in line with expectations” category for business performance in the last three months.

“It was in line with what we forecast to the market last year in our annual result.

“The outlook is still more positive today than it was six months ago – there’s no doubt about that. But it’s still quite a difficult time to say what will happen.”

He said THL would be able to provide a much better update next month, when it released its half year results.


shambles

20-01-2010, 04:01 PM

Not a very good close today!! Down 6 points... ouch


bull....

20-01-2010, 04:11 PM

Was overbrought so a pullback was expected , cant go vertical every day a.
That webster fellows comments raise some eyebrows though or is it warning bells?


shambles

20-01-2010, 04:24 PM

It may be warning bells. I don't think it's the beep of tourists reversing their campers into the holiday parks...


winner69

20-01-2010, 06:21 PM

Was overbrought so a pullback was expected , cant go vertical every day a.
That webster fellows comments raise some eyebrows though or is it warning bells?


Is what happens in a lightly traded stock when somebody wants or needs to sell .... it was those 30,000 shares at days end that stuffed the price

All OK unless he has another 30,000 or 50,000 or 100,000 to sell then we are in trouble

My ATR sell point is currently 93 ... with THL (because of the inherent risks involved) discipline must prevail so maybe i won't be a shareholder this time tomorrow ..... but hopefully today was an abheration and THL is still on the way up to 250


winner69

20-01-2010, 06:23 PM

Was overbrought so a pullback was expected , cant go vertical every day a.
That webster fellows comments raise some eyebrows though or is it warning bells?

The main point of the article was that increased activity does not always lead to a comensurate increase in profitability


O Dusty

22-01-2010, 01:21 AM

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/3250579/Key-gives-tourism-5m-marketing-boost


Doyle

25-01-2010, 09:36 AM

Is what happens in a lightly traded stock when somebody wants or needs to sell .... it was those 30,000 shares at days end that stuffed the price

All OK unless he has another 30,000 or 50,000 or 100,000 to sell then we are in trouble

My ATR sell point is currently 93 ... with THL (because of the inherent risks involved) discipline must prevail so maybe i won't be a shareholder this time tomorrow ..... but hopefully today was an abheration and THL is still on the way up to 250

Keep that discipline winner? Could barely sleep last night, wondering what will happen on the market this week. Was 100% invested on friday, but have already started selling down this morning. Probably A bit silly of me but then fear is a funny thing.


bull....

28-01-2010, 03:15 PM

Thl no longer overbrought now volumes picking up around a fib level at 94 , a move back thr 98 will take us to new highs in the uptrend.


shambles

28-01-2010, 03:59 PM

Thanks Bull


bull....

03-02-2010, 04:27 PM

tourism figures next week followed by results the following week busy period for thl.


Snoopy

04-02-2010, 02:40 PM

Over the last week I have relocated a THL campervan from Christchurch to Auckland so have gained some first hand consumer knowledge of this business I thought shareholders might be interested in.

<snip>

My overall impression of THL was of not enough staff, poorly trained. If you ask me whether I would hire a van from them at normal price ( I was quoted $155 per day ), then I probably wouldn't. But would I relocate a van for them again? Probably yes, but I would allow more time between connections. knowing how THL operate!

SNOOPY



I came back from the North Island this week after another 'extended weekend' away with THL from their Auckland base. So yes I did go back to THL, although I didn't hire a campervan. Being peak season, the minimum time that I was allowed to hire a campervan for was ten days. I guess there is enough demand over the peak tourist seaon for THL to write such restrictions into the contract. Other campervan companies do similar things. However paying for a ten day campervan hire does make for an extravagant four day weekend. So I struck on a compromise. An 'Explore' rental car from THL combined with an 'Explore' rental tent! I don't do that much camping but as it never rains in the Auckland district ;-), this did seem a good compromise. I do own a tent, but what with all of the excess baggage piece surcharges at airlines these days I decided it was worth paying the $20 per day charge to THL for the rental tent, instead of handing more than that money over to Jetstar as an excess luggage allowance.

This time I checked the timing in advance using the THL helpline. My plane arrived at 4:25pm and I was expected inside at the THL desk in Auckland by 5pm. Tightish, but I reckoned I could pick up my bag and make the 3km journey even if I missed the complimentary THL shuttle bus and had to take a taxi.

The person on the THL helpline was very pleasant, but seemed very concerned that I hadn't allowed myself enough time to 'clear customs'. Now I know there has been a traditional north/south rivalry for many years. But I wasn't aware this rivalry had degenerated into being forced through customs posts when island hopping between Christchurch and Auckland on a domestic flight! As it turned out, to my great relief, Auckland Airport hadn't heard of this development either. I was also given wrong information about the Shuttle departure time. I was told 'quarter to' and 'quarter past' the hour, where as the real times were on there hour and the half hour. As a result I did miss the shuttle, even though the shuttle driver had been sent out to diligently look for me!

Tourism Holdings Limited and VINZ work in partnership, with VINZ providing inspection services on-site, at their premises.

 Tourism Holdings Limited (thl) is the largest provider of holiday vehicles for rent and sale in Australia and New Zealand, under the Maui, Britz, Mighty, and KEAbrands.

“Working with VINZ has resulted in an increased efficiency of our fleet operation, helping to make more campervans available to meet customer demand.

In particular, the Entry Certification work they do for us has ensured much smoother processing of imported campervans, allowing us to make these available for customers more quickly.”

Gordon Hewston, General Manager

thl Rentals New Zealand

 

 


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